📊 Score Went Neutral Before the Tariff Bomb — And It's Holding
Last Thursday night, the Edge Of Markets score dropped from 5.31 (Constructive) to 5.17 (Neutral: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash). That was before the SCOTUS ruling, before the GDP miss, and way before Trump decided to go nuclear with a 15% global tariff over the weekend.
Since then? The score has been bouncing between 5.16 and 5.21 — never leaving Neutral territory. Right now it sits at 5.17. The model isn't panicking, but it's also not buying the dip. It's sitting in 70% cash and watching the chaos unfold.
QQQ is trading at $602.06, well below the 70-day EMA at $616.29. No override — we follow the score directly.
Final Recommendation: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash
Three days of escalating chaos, and the score was already in the bunker. That's the value of reading economic data instead of Twitter.
💣 Trump's Constitutional Workaround: 15% on Everything
Here's the timeline, because it's genuinely wild:
- Friday morning: Supreme Court rules 6-3 that Trump's IEEPA-based tariffs are unconstitutional. Markets celebrate with a relief rally.
- Friday night: Trump announces a new 10% global tariff using Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act — a completely different legal authority.
- Saturday morning: Trump raises it to 15% via Truth Social. "Effective immediately."
Section 122 caps tariffs at 15% and limits them to 150 days unless Congress extends them. So Trump went straight to the ceiling. The legal basis is different — balance-of-payments deficits instead of national emergencies — but the economic effect is the same: everything imported into the U.S. just got 15% more expensive.
The market's Friday relief rally lasted about six hours. Welcome to trade policy whiplash.
📉 Monday's Damage Report
The selling started at the open and hasn't let up:
- Dow Jones: -771 points (-1.56%) to 48,854
- S&P 500: -79.72 (-1.15%) to 6,829
- Nasdaq: -326 (-1.42%) to 22,560
- Bitcoin: Crashed to ~$64,700 (-5%) — Google searches for "Bitcoin to zero" hit record highs
- Gold: $5,174 (+2%) — fresh all-time high, safe haven demand surging
The divergence between gold and everything else tells you exactly where sentiment is right now. When money flows into the one asset that does nothing but sit there looking pretty, that's raw fear. Bitcoin was supposed to be "digital gold" but it's trading like a leveraged tech stock — down 5% while actual gold rips.
🎮 The Elephant in the Room: Nvidia Reports Wednesday
Into this tariff chaos walks the most important earnings report of 2026 so far. Nvidia reports Q4 FY2026 results after the close on Wednesday, February 25.
Wall Street expects $65.7 billion in revenue (+67% YoY) and $1.53 EPS (+72% YoY). Goldman Sachs is calling for a beat-and-raise. The 20-day and 50-day moving averages on QQQ are both trending down, and the index is sitting below its 70 EMA — so the technical setup is fragile going into what could be the most consequential single-stock earnings event in years.
If Nvidia crushes it, maybe the AI narrative overrides the tariff fear. If it disappoints? QQQ at $602 could look like a rest stop on the way down, not support. The stakes are absurdly high.
🎯 My Take: The Score Saw the Storm Coming
Let's step back and appreciate the sequence here. Last Thursday night, the score dropped to Neutral. Friday, SCOTUS nuked the tariffs and the market rallied on false hope. Saturday, Trump replaced them with new tariffs. Monday, the market is getting hammered.
The score didn't flinch during Friday's rally. It stayed Neutral while everyone was celebrating the SCOTUS decision like the trade war was over. Turns out, the model understood something the market didn't: the tariff risk wasn't gone, it was shape-shifting.
Now here's the uncomfortable truth: this 150-day clock on Section 122 tariffs means we're looking at five months of uncertainty. Will Congress extend them? Will Trump find another legal authority when this one expires? Will companies that paused investment decisions start pulling the trigger on layoffs? These aren't hypothetical questions anymore — they're the investment backdrop for the next two quarters.
The score at 5.17 with 70% cash isn't exciting. But when the Dow is down 770 points and Bitcoin is in freefall and Trump is making trade policy on Truth Social at 7 AM on a Saturday? Boring is beautiful.
⚠️ Bottom Line: Cash Is King Until Nvidia Says Otherwise
Score: 5.17 (Neutral: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash). QQQ below the 70 EMA. No override. The model says stay defensive, and today's price action is screaming the same thing.
Key levels to watch:
- QQQ $600: Psychological support — a break below could accelerate selling
- S&P 6,800: The next major support zone
- Nvidia earnings (Wed after close): The potential circuit breaker or circuit blower for this entire market
The tariff war isn't over. It just changed courtrooms. Stay in cash, stay patient, and let Nvidia tell us what comes next.