Expert analysis on market trends and economic indicators
The weekend did not change the trade: raw score still risk-off, EMA floor still 100% QQQ, and Monday's ISM plus Friday's jobs report decide whether records deserve more rope.
QQQ spent the afternoon near records, Dell exploded on AI demand, and the system stayed full QQQ. The raw score is still ugly, but the stretch trigger still has not fired.
The raw score is still buried, but the traded system is full QQQ because trend has not cracked. With QQQ sitting just under the +6% stretch trim, Friday is a discipline test.
The morning macro print looked messy. By late afternoon, QQQ was back near $735, the EMA floor was still full long, and the next risk is no longer GDP. It is the +6% stretch line.
The macro stack finally landed: Q1 GDP was revised to 1.6%, headline PCE stayed sticky, and QQQ still held the EMA floor. The raw score got uglier, but the traded system remains 100% QQQ.
The late read did not add a new trade: full QQQ floor, neutral stretch, raw score still buried. That makes tomorrow's 8:30 AM ET macro stack the next real test.
Since the 12:59 PM ET update, QQQ stayed reloaded, closed at $729.45, and never came close to forcing another stretch trim. Oil collapsing helped records stick, but the real win was the overlay staying simple.
The +6% stretch reset after the morning wobble, moving the floor back from 50/50 to 100% QQQ. QQQ recovered by lunch, which makes the reload look timely instead of desperate.
QQQ is still in the +6% stretch trim, but only barely. With spot hovering a few cents above the +5% reset line, the system is one wobble away from reloading the full long.
QQQ never reset the +6% stretch after the open, so the book stayed 50% QQQ / 50% cash into record closes. The setup is cleaner now: reload below $722.70, step fully aside above $736.47.
The +6% EMA25 trim held through the close, leaving the book 50% QQQ / 50% cash while Nasdaq and the S&P printed records. The next real question is $736.47 or $722.70.
The +6% EMA 25 trim fired at the open for the first time in 42 override sessions. QQQ gapped to $725.88, ran to $730.72 by 10:30 AM, drifted around $728 midday, closed $730.43 — held the gap, didn't fade. Floor mechanically stepped from 100% QQQ to 50% QQQ / 50% Cash. Day 6 of the long closes +$24.55 / +3.48% off the $705.88 re-entry, half the book now booked. The engine read 4.70 / 4.69 / 4.70 (24th straight sub-4.95, no bear-stretch boost — actually a touch more defensive than Memorial Day's 4.74). EMA 25 distance closed +6.12% locked inside the above-6 zone. EMA 70 line still ~$78 below spot. The pre-market call landed dead center.
Markets reopen after the long weekend with the bid still on. Nasdaq futures +1.4% / S&P +0.9% / Dow +432 on the Iran 'broad principles' deal (60-day process, Strait of Hormuz reopen, Brent still under $99). If the gap holds into the bell, QQQ opens roughly $727 — that's Day 6 of the long up +$21 / +3.0% off the $705.88 re-entry, and it tags the +6% EMA 25 trim line near $725.86 for the first time since the override re-engaged. Floor steps from 100% QQQ to 50% QQQ / 50% Cash if it fires. The engine still reads 4.74 (23rd straight sub-4.95, raw rec 100% SQQQ, no bear-stretch boost), and the EMA 70 line at $650.86 sits roughly $77 / ~10% below spot. Consumer Confidence at 10 AM is the only real macro before Friday's April Core PCE.
The tape was dark all session, but the engine still printed three times — 4.74 / 4.73 / 4.74 — a 1-bp drift right at the basement of Extreme Risk-Off. Day 41 of the override, Day 5 of the long, zero trades possible. The real news came overnight in futures: S&P +0.9%, Nasdaq +1.4%, Dow +432 points (+0.9%) on the Iran deal carry, with Brent still under $99. Tuesday gaps up into Week 9 of the S&P's longest weekly streak since 2023. Override floor holds at 100% QQQ ($650.86 line still ~9% below spot, EMA 25 distance +4.75% neutral, no bear-stretch). Friday's April Core PCE is the only hard print this week that can threaten the line.
Markets are dark for Memorial Day, so the book sits exactly where Friday left it: QQQ pinned at $717.54, Day 5 of the re-engaged long up +$11.66 / +1.65% off the $705.88 re-entry. But the weekend handed the bull case a gift — Trump posted Saturday that a US-Iran 'Agreement Has Been Largely Negotiated,' Rubio called it 'significant progress,' and Brent crashed -4.55% to $98.83 on Strait-of-Hormuz re-open hopes. The engine still reads 4.72 (22nd straight sub-4.95, raw rec 100% SQQQ) — the override is the only reason this book isn't 100% short into a record-high tape with a fresh peace catalyst. EMA 70 floor active at 100% QQQ, $650.86 line still ~9% below spot, EMA 25 distance +4.75% in neutral, no bear-stretch boost. Zero trades possible today. Tuesday opens with cheaper oil and an Iran deal in the rear-view.
The week the override re-engaged the long closed green. QQQ finished Friday at $718.14, up +$12.26 / +1.74% off Monday's $705.88 re-entry — four sessions long, four green closes. The Dow stamped another record (50,723.95, +0.74%), the S&P locked in its 8th straight weekly gain (longest since 2023), and the Russell led at +0.93% on UAE-brokered Iran de-escalation hopes and bleeding oil. Meanwhile the engine closed at 4.72 — the 21st straight sub-4.95 read, raw rec 100% SQQQ — and it actually got MORE defensive into the $721 intraday high, textbook price-level profit-taking. The only reason the book is long and green is the EMA 70 override: QQQ +10.33% above the $650.88 line, EMA 25 distance +4.84% still neutral (no trim, no bear-stretch boost). Zero trades all session. The filter won the week the score wanted to lose — and nothing changes the trade until $650.88 cracks, ~9% below spot.
Day 4 of the re-engaged long opens green. Thursday's $714.51 close sits +$8.63 / +1.22% above Monday's $705.88 re-entry, the Dow just printed a fresh record 50,285.66, and the S&P is chasing an 8th straight weekly gain — its longest streak since 2023. Futures are green (Dow +0.7%), the 10-year eased to 4.55%, and Brent slid below $103 on Iran-deal hopes. Meanwhile the engine still reads 4.75 — raw rec 100% SQQQ, more than three weeks pinned sub-4.95 — screaming recession into record highs. The only reason the book is long is the EMA 70 override: QQQ +10.04% above the $649.32 line, EMA 25 distance +4.65% inside neutral (no trim, no bear-stretch boost). That filter has carried the trade from $672 to $714 by ignoring the score and respecting the trend. Nvidia's sell-the-news is in the rear-view, final May UMich sentiment is the only print on deck, and nothing changes the trade until $649.32 cracks — ~9% below spot.
The catalyst came and went, and the long is still green. Nvidia printed the biggest AI quarter in history after Wednesday's bell — $81.6B revenue +85% YoY, $1.87 EPS beat, data center +92% to $75.2B, a $91B Q2 guide, an $80B buyback, and Jensen calling demand 'parabolic' — and QQQ closed up a rounding error, +0.12% to $714.00 after a tight $707.53–$715.59 chop. Textbook sell-the-news: a fully-priced blowout that cleared a ceiling-high bar by inches. The Day 3 long now sits +$8.12 / +1.15% above Monday's $705.88 re-entry. The engine still reads 4.75 (20th straight sub-4.95, raw rec 100% SQQQ), but the EMA 70 override pins the floor at 100% QQQ — price +9.96% above the $649.31 line, EMA 25 distance +4.59% still inside neutral (no trim, no bear-stretch boost). Zero trades all session. The single biggest binary of the quarter resolved without breaking the trend — overhang cleared, long green, and nothing changes the trade until $724 trims or $649.31 cracks.
Day 2 of the re-engaged long closes green. QQQ ripped +1.56% to $712.45, now +$6.57 / +0.93% above Monday's $705.88 re-entry bar — Day 1's ~$4 drawdown fully erased. It was a mega-cap tape with a tell: S&P +0.32%, Nasdaq +0.55%, but Russell 2000 -1.01%, the money crowding into the AI-correlated names ahead of the print. The engine still reads 4.75 (18th straight sub-4.95, raw rec 100% SQQQ), but the EMA 70 override pins the floor at 100% QQQ — QQQ now +10.08% above the $647.20 line, EMA 25 distance +4.67% still inside neutral (no trim, no bear-stretch boost). Zero trades all session. Everything narrows to one event: Nvidia Q1 FY27 after the bell (~$1.78 EPS / ~$78B revenue / ~77% YoY, 21 beats in 23 quarters). The floor is long because the trend is intact, and it stays long until $647.20 breaks — Jensen's tone doesn't get a vote in that math.
Override Day 38 / Day 2 long opens green. The two-day chip flush reversed in pre-market — Intel +4.3% to $115.58, Micron +3.6% to $724, AMD +2.4% to $423.85, and Nvidia itself +1.6% to $224.11 hours before its own print. S&P futures ticked higher with oil easing, repairing part of Day 1's ~$4 drawdown off Monday's $705.88 re-entry bar. The engine's last word is still 4.79 (17th straight sub-4.95, raw rec 100% SQQQ), but the EMA 70 override pins the floor at 100% QQQ — QQQ closed +8.81% above the $644.71 line, EMA 25 distance sits at +3.49% deep inside neutral (no trim, no bear-stretch boost). The only escape valve is the $644.71 EMA 70, ~$57 / ~8% below spot. There's no cash-side exit until that cracks, which means today is a pure sit-tight trade into the single biggest catalyst of the quarter. Nvidia after the close. The override carried us from $672 to $719 by staying long while the score screamed short — now it just has to hold the line one more session.
Override Day 37 / Day 1 long survives the open. QQQ tagged $696.38 at 10:20 AM, reclaimed $705.63 by 1:45 PM, then drifted back to close $701.53 — down -0.62% vs Monday's $705.88 print, roughly $4 underwater on the re-entry bar. The engine chopped between 4.75 and 4.82 across eight intraday reads (latest 4.79 at 4:08 PM, 17th straight sub-4.95) — pure price-level noise, no allocation move. EMA 25 distance compressed to +3.49%, well inside neutral and a full +251 bps below the re-trigger. 30Y yields punched to 5.198% — fresh 19-year high, Citi pointing at 5.5% next. ~25 hours until Nvidia ($1.74-$1.77 EPS / $78.76B revenue / Q2 whisper near $90B / Vera Rubin transition the story). Floor holds 100% QQQ. Don't touch it.
Override Day 37 / Day 1 long opens in drawdown. QQQ futures indicated ~$700, down -0.4% off Monday's $703.02 re-entry close, on a second straight semis flush (Qualcomm -13%, Intel -8%, Micron -6%, AMD ~-3%) and 30Y yields pinned at 5.14% — the highest since 1999. 10Y eased 1bp to 4.61% off Monday's 15-month peak, but a BofA survey shows 62% of fund managers expecting 30Y to hit 6%. Score holds 4.70 (16th straight sub-4.95), EMA 25 distance holds ~+4.41% deep inside neutral, no overlay trim. Nvidia bucked the chip tape at -1% and prints Q1 FY27 Wednesday after the close ($1.74-$1.76 EPS / $78.75B-$78.76B revenue consensus, KeyBanc target $300). 33 hours from Jensen Huang behind the mic. The binary architecture has no cash-side escape now until the $643 EMA 70 cracks. Sit tight.
Override Day 36 ends Day 9 of all-cash with the kill-switch finally tripping. QQQ gapped up to $711.54, knifed to $698.87 mid-morning, then closed $703.02 (-0.83%). EMA 25 distance compressed from Friday's +5.29% to +4.03% — clean through the +5% reset line. The above_7 zone releases to neutral, the EMA 25 overlay clears, and the EMA 70 override (score 4.70 < 5.35, price +9.4% above the 70 EMA) flips the floor from 100% Cash straight to 100% QQQ. Biggest allocation change in 36 days, landing $16.77 below Thursday's $719.79 record, roughly 60 hours before Nvidia prints Wednesday after the close. Score drifted 4.75 → 4.70 through the afternoon as price-level math subtracted points off a $700-$704 hold. The 35-day patience trade just re-engaged on spec.
Override Day 36 / Day 9 of all-cash opens with QQQ futures indicated ~$704, down -0.6% off Friday's $708.93 close on the Iran-Strait of Hormuz supply crisis (WTI >$107, Brent >$110), 10Y yields ~4.6%, into Wednesday's Nvidia print. Pre-market is squarely through both Friday's $707.63 intraday low AND the ~$707 EMA 25 kill-switch reset line — first time this override has had the trigger inside the candle pre-bell. If the 9:30 bar holds below ~$707, hysteresis releases, the above_7 zone resets to neutral, the EMA 25 overlay clears, and the floor snaps from 100% Cash to 100% QQQ on contact — binary reset, no half-step. Score sits at 4.71 (Sunday 8:49 AM, 14th straight sub-4.95). Nvidia +0.38% pre-market diverges as KeyBanc lifts target to $300 ahead of the Blackwell print.
Override Day 35 closes Day 8 of all-cash with the kill-switch finally TESTED but not tagged. QQQ knifed -1.51% off Thursday's $719.79 record to $708.93 on a Trump-Xi summit with no real trade deal, a semis flush (Nasdaq -1.62%, AMD ~-3%, Nvidia ~-4%), 10Y yields to ~4.6%, and oil pushing toward $109 on Strait of Hormuz worry. The intraday low $707.63 at 10:00 AM compressed EMA 25 distance from +7.30% to +5.29% — the closest call in 35 days — but still sits above the +5% reset line. The dip got bought to $714.48 by 2:00 PM before a weak last-30-minute drift back to $708.93. Score climbed 4.68 → 4.75 on the open sell-off as the price-level math did its job, then eased back to 4.73 as buyers stepped in. Reset trigger now sits ~$707, less than $2 from Monday's likely open.
Override Day 35 opens with the rubber band finally compressing. Nasdaq-100 futures -1.6%, S&P -1.2%, Dow -440 on a Trump-Xi summit that ended without a real trade deal and a sharp semis selloff (Intel -4%, AMD/Micron -3%, Nvidia -2%). QQQ pre-market ~$707, down $12.74 / -1.77% from Thursday's $719.79 record. That single move mechanically compresses EMA 25 distance from +7.30% to ~+5.3% — within $2-3 of the +5% reset line for the first time this override. Score last printed 4.68 at Thursday close, still deep Extreme Risk-Off — but if QQQ slips below ~$705 at the bell, the kill-switch unlocks and the floor flips from 100% Cash to 100% QQQ on contact. Gold -1.43%, silver -5%. Day 8 of all-cash starts with the trigger finally in range.
Override Day 34 closes Day 7 of all-cash with QQQ printing another record at $719.79, +0.58% past Wednesday's settle, on the Nvidia H200 China clearance and Cisco's +15% earnings pop. The score drifted 4.74 → 4.69 across a six-bp intraday chop — subtracting at every push above $721, never sniffing the 0.07 rule — a 12th straight Extreme Risk-Off reading. The EMA 25 kill-switch holds dead locked in the above_7 zone at +7.3% distance, flat on the day. Re-entry trigger sits near QQQ $704, ~$16 below spot. Retail sales cooled to +0.5% and jobless claims ticked to 211K, but the tape wanted AI headlines and a Dow above 50,000. The model's call: this is early, not wrong.
Override Day 34 opens almost exactly where Day 33 closed. The EMA 25 kill-switch is still locked in the above_7 zone — distance compressed just 12 bps overnight, from Wednesday's +7.31% to +7.19%, and a premarket drift toward $717 would actually re-widen it to ~+7.5%. The floor stays at 100% Cash. Score nudged 4.73 → 4.74, a +0.01 twitch that's pure noise against the 0.07 rule — 11 straight readings now pinned deep in Extreme Risk-Off. Re-entry trigger holds ~$700, still ~$15 below spot. The 8:30 AM slate matters: retail sales (+0.5% forecast vs +1.7% prior), jobless claims, and the import price index (+1.0% forecast) — the cleanest tariff pass-through read after two hot inflation days. Day 7 of zero long exposure begins with the rubber band barely budged.
Override Day 33 closes with the market doing exactly what the macro engine said it wouldn't: a shrug. After the +1.4% PPI shock — biggest monthly print since March 2022 — QQQ filled the $706.50 open gap by 10 AM and never looked back. $710 by 11, $712 by noon, $714 by 1 PM, fresh ATH $715.97 at 2:30 PM, close $715.62 (+1.18% on the day). A six-day cash position just gave back what was almost $8 of compression. Distance from the EMA 25 re-stretched from this morning's +6.15% all the way back to +7.31% — 116 bps wider in one session. The kill-switch is now $15 below spot instead of $8. Score sat pinned at 4.72-4.73 for six straight hours, refusing to ratify the tape. Day 6 of zero long exposure ends with the rubber band more stretched than at yesterday's open.
Override Day 33 woke up to a shock PPI print — +1.4% MoM triples the +0.5% consensus, the biggest monthly jump since March 2022. YoY hit +6.0%, highest since December 2022. Services PPI +1.2%, trade services +2.7% — the tariff pass-through is officially showing up in the data. Rate-cut odds for 2026 just rounded to zero, hike odds climbed to ~39%. Score slipped to 4.72 at 10:16 AM ET — two straight hot inflation days have the macro engine reading regime, not noise. QQQ opened $706.50 and bounced to $707.42, basically shrugging off the bond-market drubbing. Distance from the EMA 25 closed yesterday at +6.65%, today reads +6.15% — 50 bps tighter in one session as the EMA 25 grinds higher. Re-entry trigger now ~$699, only $8 below spot. Day 6 in cash. Kill-switch closer to unlocking than at any point in the run.
Override Day 32 watched QQQ kiss the re-entry zone — intraday low of $696.66 came within $0.51 of the +5% EMA 25 reset before bouncing $10.58 into the close to $707.24 (-0.85% on the day). April CPI hot at 3.8% vs 3.7% consensus killed any rate-cut hopes for June. Brent ripped back above $103 on the US-Iran MOU collapse and Strait of Hormuz chatter — the same energy tailwind that powered last week's override trim is now reversing. Score did its job: added 0.04 at the lows (4.77 → 4.81 at 10:32 AM with QQQ $703.80), then bled back to 4.75 at 2:34 PM as price recovered. Distance closed at +6.65%, 16 bps tighter than Friday but still hysteresis-locked. Day 5 of zero longs. The reset is finally within striking distance.
Override Day 28 opens to a HOT NFP — 115K vs 62K consensus, beat by 53K. Pre-market QQQ pops $1.59 to $696.53 on the 'no urgency to cut' trade. Score nudged 4.79 → 4.81 (still Extreme Risk-Off, three weeks sub-4.95). The kill-switch is still locked, but distance re-widened overnight to +6.91% from yesterday's +6.81% close. Re-entry needs distance below +5% — that's roughly QQQ $683, ~$13 below spot. Yesterday's 77 bps of compression is starting to reverse. Hot NFP = no mean-reversion catalyst.
Override Day 27 closes its first full cash session with the kill-switch still locked but the rubber band relaxing — distance compressed from +7.58% at the open to +6.81% at the close as QQQ faded $5 off the 11 AM $699.60 high to settle $694.24 (-0.22%). The score did exactly what it was designed to: subtracted to 4.76 at 10:43 AM with QQQ at $699.50 (top tick), then added back to 4.80 at 11:53 AM as price mean-reverted toward $695. Initial claims came in 200K (beat 205K consensus, still up 11K from 189K prior). S&P -0.50%, Nasdaq -0.21%, Dow -334. Amazon and semis took a breather. NFP tomorrow is the only number that decides if distance clears +5% or re-locks deeper.
Override Day 27 wakes up exactly where Wednesday closed — kill-switch on, distance +7.58%, floor at 100% Cash. The score has been frozen at 4.80 since 2:01 PM yesterday. Futures inch green on continued Iran-MOU vibes, Brent pinned near $99, AMD's halo carrying into day two. Initial jobless claims at 8:30 AM (205K consensus vs 189K prior) plus continuing claims (1.80M) are the only data drops before NFP Friday. Hysteresis is live: no re-entry until distance drops back below +5% — roughly QQQ $679, a ~2.4% pullback. The system already booked the $594→$695 run. First full session in 27 days with zero QQQ exposure on the long side.
Override Day 26 just made history. At 11:08 AM ET the +7% EMA 25 trim fired for the first time this run — the floor dropped straight from 50/50 to 100% Cash and the system sold the rest of the QQQ position into the rip. By the close QQQ was at $695.75 (fresh ATH, +1.5%), the score had bled to 4.80, and distance from the 25 EMA finished at +7.58%. Hysteresis now live: no re-entry until distance drops back below +5%. Iran-MOU hopes + AMD's +15% blowout carried Nasdaq +1.5% / S&P +1.1% / Dow +540. ADP printed 109K vs 99K consensus. The model just took the entire long off at the top.
Override Day 26 opens with the trim still on, the score still asleep, and the macro tape doing 180s overnight. Brent −9.8% to $99 and WTI −10.5% to $91 on an Axios report that the White House is close to a one-page US-Iran MOU — the entire energy tax that's been the bear thesis for two weeks just got repriced to zero in 14 hours. AMD blew the doors off after the bell ($10.3B rev, +46% Q2 guide, 6 GW Meta MI450 deal) and is +18% pre-market. Intel +6.4% on Apple chip talks. Corning +17% on the NVDA optical partnership. The score? Still 4.83 from Tuesday 9:54 AM. Twenty-three hours of silence through a 1.28% rally, an ATH close, and now a futures rip. The trim is doing all the allocation work — distance vs the 25 EMA holds at +6.06%, the floor stays 50% QQQ / 50% Cash. ADP 8:15 AM is the first read into Friday's NFP. The override doesn't care about Iran or AMD. It cares about whether QQQ holds the +6% stretch into the close.
Pre-market said it plainly: 'hold $678 through the open and the +6% flag re-arms.' QQQ opened $680.14, closed $681.50 — held it all day and then some. The +6% EMA 25 bull-stretch trim re-fired, distance now sitting at +6.05%, and the floor snapped from 100% QQQ back to 50% QQQ / 50% Cash. Second trim activation of the entire 25-day override era, four sessions after the first. The score? Printed 4.83 at 9:54 AM with QQQ at $681.27 — a clean −0.05 push from the 4.88 pre-market read as price crossed the next level — then went silent for the rest of the session. Six straight hours of no new score data through a +1.28% Nasdaq day, a +1.95% Russell 2000 day, and an ISM Services miss to 53.6. The macro side is doing its job: soft-data slide is now a confirmed trend, JOLTS came in soft, and the rate-cut narrative gets a fresh tailwind into Friday's NFP. Palantir got slapped −6.6% despite a +71% full-year guide raise — pure valuation reset on a name that was priced for two more years of perfection. AMD reports as we publish; that's the last meaningful AI-capex read of Q1 and the only thing standing between the tape and Friday's payroll number. Allocation into the bell: 50% QQQ / 50% Cash. Trim back on, divergence wider, override still steering.
Override Day 25 picks up exactly where Monday closed: floor at 100% QQQ, no trim, score frozen sub-4.95 at 4.88 (one tick above Monday's close print). But the pre-market bid has done what Monday's close post warned was 0.76% away — NQ futures +0.8% are dragging QQQ to ~$677.88, which reprices distance from the 25 EMA right back at the +6% trim line. If the open holds, the alert re-fires and we're back at 50/50 by lunch. Brent gave back 1% pre-market to $113 after settling +5.8% Monday on the UAE missile intercept; futures don't care: NDX +0.8%, S&P +0.5%, Dow +218. Palantir blew the doors off AH ($1.63B revenue, full-year guide raised to $7.65–7.66B = +71%). ISM Services 10 AM (last 54.0) and AMD after the bell are today's clock. NFP Friday remains the print that matters.
Post-close read: the trim that came off at 1:30 PM stayed off into the bell, and the final allocation is the pure override floor — 100% QQQ. But the day got loud after the trim cleared. UAE said it intercepted missiles fired from Iran (first activation of the alert system since the ceasefire), Brent ripped +5.8% to $114.44, WTI ran +4.39% to $106.42, and the Dow paid the bill — −557 points (−1.13%) to 48,941.90. The Nasdaq, somehow, scratched −0.19% to a 25,067 close because mega-cap tech is once again the only thing in this market that doesn't care about oil. QQQ ended at $672.88, $1.27 off Friday's $674.15 ATH. The score? Hasn't printed since 1:23 PM at 4.86 — three full hours of silence through the worst Iran tape of the session. Distance vs the EMA 25 settled at +5.24%, 0.76% from re-arming the trim if QQQ rallies five bucks at the open. ISM Services 10 AM tomorrow, ADP Wednesday, NFP Friday — the macro week starts here.
Four hours after the open and the trade has actually changed. The +6% EMA 25 bull-stretch trim that's been locked since Friday 2 PM just cleared — distance dropped from 5.96% this morning to 5.25% as QQQ faded $3 off the 11 AM bid, and that's under the +6% threshold. Floor snaps back from 50% QQQ / 50% Cash to 100% QQQ. First allocation change in three sessions. The score did its own intraday whip — 4.85 at 10:35 AM, knifed to a 4.80 cycle low at 10:55 AM, recovered to 4.86 by 1:23 PM. Meanwhile Iran headlines whip both ways: state media claims a U.S. frigate was hit in the Strait of Hormuz, CENTCOM flatly denies it, Brent still holds $110.50 (+2.2%), WTI $103.20 (+1.2%). The market, somehow, is fine with all of it — Nasdaq +0.04%, S&P -0.18%, Dow -0.40%. The macro stays ugly, the price stays sticky, and the override just took us back to fully long.
Sunday night's NQ futures bid (+0.87%) couldn't survive Monday morning. Pre-market has QQQ around $669, roughly $5 off Friday's fresh $674.15 ATH, with Brent crude pressing $110-111 and WTI back above $103 as the Iran story re-prices into the energy complex. Spirit Airlines ceased operations over the weekend citing the jet fuel bill — a real-world casualty of the supply disruption the IEA called the largest in oil-market history. Berkshire is one of the few green names on the screen, up pre-market after Abel's first annual meeting Saturday went without a hitch. The score? Still parked at 4.86 from Sunday 2:16 PM ET — no fresh print yet this morning, no new info on the macro side. The +6% EMA 25 bull-stretch trim is still locked (zone = above_6, distance = 5.96%, sitting right on the threshold), so the allocation is unchanged: 50% QQQ / 50% Cash. New ref is still 4.94 from April 11. ISM Services tomorrow, ADP Wednesday, AMD/Palantir/Disney/Uber/Coinbase earnings throughout, and April NFP Friday at 8:30 AM with consensus 49K and unemployment to 4.3% — that's the macro print this week's tape gets to react to. Everything before Friday is positioning.
Friday closed with the score at a fresh 4.77 cycle low and QQQ at a fresh $674.15 ATH — the widest divergence the override has ever produced. The weekend didn't unwind any of it. Seven new score prints across Saturday and Sunday, every single one sub-4.95, with a 4.78 Sunday-morning print one tick off the cycle low and a 4.86 latest at 2:16 PM ET. The +6% EMA 25 bull-stretch trim is still locked on (zone = above_6, distance 5.96% — sitting on the threshold with hysteresis holding the flag), so the floor stays trimmed to 50% QQQ / 50% Cash, the same allocation Friday's close put us in. Futures opened the Sunday session split: NQ +0.87% to $27,835.75 riding the AAPL +3% Friday gap, S&P barely green at +0.20%, Dow soft at -0.38%. Berkshire's annual meeting Saturday — Abel's first as CEO, with Buffett dropping a 'markets are a church with a casino attached' line that aged about as well as the score's view of $674 QQQ. April nonfarm payrolls Friday is the only macro that matters this week. Until then, the score is screaming 'expensive' and the trim is enforcing it. No new ref, no new rebalance — just five days of the same trade.
This morning's pre-market post asked exactly two questions: would the +6% EMA 25 trim trigger fire, and would the 4.97 pre-market score print survive the open. The afternoon answered both, in opposite directions. AAPL gapped +3% and held it through the close, QQQ ripped +$6.41 (+0.96%) to $674.15 — a fresh all-time high — and somewhere around 2:00 PM ET, distance crossed +6% above EMA 25 and the bull-stretch trim activated for the first time in 23 sessions. Floor recommendation drops from 100% QQQ to 50% QQQ / 50% Cash. Meanwhile the score did the opposite of confirm: 4.97 at 8:50 AM faded to 4.93, then printed five more reads, and at 3:21 PM cracked to 4.77 with QQQ at $675.18 — a fresh cycle low for the entire override era, set against a fresh ATH on the same chart. Bounced to 4.83 by 3:55 PM. New ref still 4.94 from April 11, delta now −0.17, but staying in zone 0 means no score-driven rebalance. The EMA 25 trim is the only allocation modifier the cycle has ever fired.
Apple delivered the cleanest possible binary print: $143.8B record revenue (+16% YoY), $2.84 EPS vs $2.67 expected, iPhone all-time high $85.3B, Greater China $25.5B (vs $18.5B y/y), Q2 guide 13-16% growth. Stock +3% pre-market. And QQQ futures are still soft — $665.62 vs yesterday's $667.74 close — because the MSFT capex hangover and the chip rotation digestion are eating half the AAPL win in real time. Score printed 4.97 at 8:50 AM ET — second-highest pre-market reading of the cycle behind yesterday's 5.00 fake, but the first to land with QQQ already at elevated cash prices, +0.03 from the 4.94 ref, still inside the 0.07 band. Override Day 23 opens with the +6% EMA 25 bull-stretch trim trigger sitting roughly +0.6% of QQQ above pre-market — the closest the cycle has come to activating its first allocation modifier. AAPL did its job. The tape now has to do the rest.
Three weeks of one or zero prints per day, and today the engine fired five — pre-market 5.00 (closest to the 5.05 Cautious line of the entire override cycle), then 4.90, 4.91, 4.88 (new cycle low for the band), 4.89. Delta to the 4.94 ref still only −0.05, still inside the 0.07 rule, no rebalance. QQQ ignored the entire score conversation and ripped +$6.17 (+0.93%) to a fresh $667.74 ATH on a Nvidia-led tape that absorbed Microsoft's $190B capex sticker shock without flinching. S&P 500 +1.02% to 7,209.01, Nasdaq +0.89% to 24,892.31, both fresh records. April closed as the best Nasdaq month since April 2020 (+15.3%) and the best S&P month since November 2020 (+10.4%). Override Day 22 cushion recovers to $48.89, EMA 25 distance back to +5.4% — within roughly $3.80 of the +6% bull-stretch trim. Apple AMC tonight is the last earnings binary on the calendar.
The binaries landed exactly as advertised. Fed held 3.5-3.75% with a 4-member dissent — the most since October 1992. Powell announced he'll stay on the Board after his chair term ends May 15. Iran blockade pushed Brent above $112 and WTI back over $107. Amazon crushed AMC: $2.78 EPS vs $1.64 expected, $181.52B revenue vs $177.3B. QQQ closed +$4.02 (+0.61%) to $661.57, Dow −0.57%, S&P essentially flat, Nasdaq +0.04%. And the score? Pinned at 4.92 since Tuesday 9:06 AM. Ref still 4.94 from April 11, delta −0.02, zero score prints all FOMC day. Cushion compressed to $41.98 intraday Tuesday, recovered to $44.71 today. Override Day 21 closes intact — and the engine's silence on the most-anticipated print of the cycle is the loudest single-session signal we've recorded.
The first session of the FOMC + Mag 7 gauntlet was a non-event by design. QQQ opened $663.28, dipped to $661.79 by 10:30 AM on stalled Iran talks and oil ripping above $107, and ground back to a fresh $664.36 ATH close — +$0.48, +0.07%. One score print all day: 4.93 at 12:30 PM with QQQ at $662.66 — a 0.01 fade from the 4.94 ref, still Extreme Risk-Off, still inside the same 4.90-4.97 band the engine has held for three weeks. Delta to ref −0.01, no rebalance. EMA 70 ticked up to $614.75 and the cushion compressed for the first time of the cycle to $49.61 — the first session where EMA outran the tape on an ATH close. Override Day 19 closes intact. Wednesday is when the binaries actually land.
Friday closed at a $663.88 ATH with the override cushion at a cycle-record $51.36. The week ahead stacks four binaries: FOMC Wed (Powell's penultimate, ~100% no-cut priced), MSFT/GOOGL/AMZN/META Wed AMC, AAPL Thu AMC, and a fresh Iran proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz pushing WTI above $95 and Brent above $106. NQ futures −0.2%, ES −0.1%, Dow futures −112. Pure signal still 4.94, ref still 4.94 from April 11, delta zero, no weekend prints. Override Day 19 starts the gauntlet with the most one-sided pure-signal-vs-tape gap of the cycle — and the first real test of what the engine does on a pullback.
Thursday's thaw got un-printed in one session. Intel Q1 demolition (EPS $0.29 vs $0.01, guide-up) opened the tape, Nvidia reclaimed $5T, SOXX posted its 18th green day in a row (+11% on the week), and QQQ ripped $12.46 to a fresh $663.88 ATH (+1.91%). Nasdaq +1.63%, S&P +0.80%, Dow -0.2% on the chip rotation split. Pure signal faded 4.97 → 4.94 — textbook price weight subtracting points as price crossed new levels on a macro-neutral day. Ref still 4.94 from April 11, delta zero, no rebalance. Override Day 18 closes with a $51.36 cushion to EMA 70 — a cycle record by $7, requiring a 7.7% drawdown to even threaten a trend break. Cleanest override session yet.
Yesterday's ceiling break met today's headline wall. Tesla beat EPS $0.41 vs $0.37 but hiked capex to $25B (+$5B over prior guide) and dropped -3.4% into the print, dragging the tape. Iran seized two container ships, Trump ordered the Navy to shoot mine-layers, oil ripped +4% WTI to $96.50 / Brent above $105. QQQ faded from the $655.11 ATH to $651.12, -0.61%, but held above the $648.85 flipped-support line. Real story: the score finally participated. Four intraday prints — 4.96 / 4.97 / 4.96 / 4.97 — the most cash-session activity in 17 sessions. Ref still 4.94 (April 11), still 0.08 below the 5.05 Cautious threshold, but the two-tick coma is officially broken. Override Day 17 gives back $4.84 of the record cushion, closes at $39.56.
Path A landed with conviction on the third attempt. QQQ gapped to $649.47, chewed through the $648.85/$649.67 ceiling that had failed twice, and never looked back — close $654.96, a fresh all-time high, +$10.63 (+1.65%) on the day. Trend day, close within 61 cents of the high. Score did what it's done for sixteen straight sessions: printed 4.91 pre-market at 8:51 AM and went silent for the entire cash session, watching the whole rally in coma mode. Override Day 16 closes with a record $44.40 cushion to EMA 70 — up $9.65 on the day and eclipsing Friday's $41.57 cycle high. Ref holds at 4.94 from April 11. Tesla reports after the bell in three hours — the second binary of the week, stapled to the back of the ceiling break.
Binary resolved at 5:36 PM ET Tuesday — Trump extended the Iran ceasefire at Pakistan's request until an Iranian proposal arrives. Not peace, not a deal, just more time. Oil didn't agree: WTI $90.86 (+1.3%), Brent $99.81 (+1.4%), blockade still in Hormuz, Iran calling it a siege and refusing to return to talks. Futures green anyway — S&P +0.54%, Nasdaq +0.73%, Dow +0.50%. Score moved: 4.96 at 5:36 PM (first break from the 4.90-4.91 band in five sessions), then reverted to 4.91 at 8:51 AM. A six-tick round trip on a news catalyst. Override Day 16 opens with cushion near $34 ahead of a potential gap-up open, and Tesla earnings after the bell tonight.
Futures were green, oil was cooling, tape primed for the Path-A bid. QQQ gapped to $649.09, poked $649.67 by 10 AM — within a buck of Friday's $648.85 ATH — and then faded all day. Close $643.05, down -0.58%, second straight red session, two ATH rejections in three days. Score printed once at 8:52 AM at 4.90 and went silent for the entire cash session while QQQ traveled a $6.62 range. Override Day 15 cushion drops to $33.50 — down -$4.71 on the day, -$7.88 off Friday's $41.38 record. Ceasefire deadline inside 16 hours, Tesla after tomorrow's close. $642.52 is the floor. $649 is the ceiling that has now failed twice.
D-day for the Iran ceasefire. Trump says a deal is coming but refuses to extend past Wednesday — oil gives back its Monday rip, WTI $89.40 / Brent $95.38, futures tilt green on peace-talk hope. Score woke up at 8:52 AM with a single 4.90 print — Extreme Risk-Off, unchanged, 15th straight session pinned in the 4.90-4.91 band. Override Day 15 opens with a $38.21 cushion to EMA 70. By tomorrow's bell we either get a ceasefire extension and the override extends its lead, or the deadline passes and the pure signal finally gets the catalyst it's been waiting for. Tesla earnings tomorrow after close.
Pre-market threatened -0.4%, QQQ dipped to $642.52 by 11 AM, then the tape healed. Close -$2.90 (-0.45%) at $645.95 — a real red print, not a face-ripper, not a collapse. Score woke up after 29 hours of silence and printed three times intraday: 4.91 → 4.90 → 4.91, all still Extreme Risk-Off. Override Day 14 gives back $4.18 of the record cushion, now $37.39. Pure signal registered its first relative win of the cycle. Ceasefire clock: 30 hours.
The Hormuz-open rally died over the weekend. US seized an Iranian cargo ship in the Gulf of Oman, Iran fired on commercial vessels, Trump threatened to bomb Iran's power grid. Futures red across the board, WTI +6% to $89, Brent +5.5% to $95. Score never left 4.90-4.91 — printed eleven times Sunday, the first weekend tape activity of the cycle. Override Day 14 opens with the pure signal and the futures tape pointing the same way for the first time in two weeks. Ceasefire deadline: overnight Tuesday.
Iran's foreign minister declared the Strait of Hormuz 'completely open,' oil cratered -12%, Dow ripped +1.8%, S&P 500 closed above 7,100 for the first time, Nasdaq tagged a fresh ATH. QQQ settled $648.85 (+1.31%), eating a -9% Netflix gap and still printing green. Score unchanged at 4.90 — zero intraday prints all day. Override day thirteen closes with a record $41.57 cushion to EMA 70. One session to April 21.
Day thirteen opens with real ammunition. Vance to lead US delegation in Pakistan, Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire signed overnight, oil tumbling — Nasdaq futures +0.96%, S&P +0.85%, Dow +1.14%. But Netflix dropped 9% after-hours on a weak Q2 guide and a Hastings departure, and NFLX is a top-10 QQQ holding. Score unchanged at 4.90 into the open. Two trading sessions to April 21.
Score cracks to new cycle low 4.90 as Philly Fed blasts 26.7 and claims beat — QQQ closes $640.06 with record $34.30 cushion over EMA 70. Day twelve of the override. Three sessions to April 21.
Forty-four minutes after the bell, the score lifted from the 4.91 cycle low back to 4.94 — the first up-tick off the bottom and a clean return to the ref. Nasdaq Composite closed +1.59% at a new all-time high of 24,016.02, S&P 500 set a fresh record at 7,022.95, chips led, Robinhood ripped +10% on SEC day-trading approval. Day eleven of the override is in the books. Five sessions to April 21.
The 60-minute fade from the 2:50 PM post didn't extend — it reversed. QQQ pushed from $634.28 straight through to a $637.32 close, up +$8.72 on the day. Score printed a new cycle low of 4.91 at 3:35 PM with QQQ at $637.14. Cushion to EMA 70 expanded to $32.78, the widest reading of the override cycle. Day eleven closes green and divergence hits a fresh record.
The $1.88 fade flagged in the 1 PM post lasted exactly one hour. QQQ bottomed at $632.37 at 12:30 PM and just re-tagged $634.28 at the 2 PM bar. Score printed 4.93 at 1:21 PM — one tick lower, still pinned deep in Extreme Risk-Off. Override unchanged. Cushion back to $29.82.
Since the lunch post, two things broke: CENTCOM says the Iran port blockade is now 'fully implemented,' and Trump hinted peace talks could restart in Pakistan within 48 hours. QQQ peaked at $634.25 at noon and has bled back to $632.37. Score still 4.94. Ceasefire ends April 21 — the clock is now the story.
QQQ is trading $634.25 at midday, up another $6.57 from yesterday's close. BAC and MS beat, ASML is ripping on AI demand, and the S&P is a whisker from an all-time high. The score printed 4.94 at 8:52 AM and went back to sleep. EMA cushion: $29.79. Day eleven of the override being right.
QQQ tacked on another $10.66 today to close at $628.05 — a new post-war high. The score tried to escape with a 4.94 print at 10:39 AM, failed, and closed right back at 4.93. The EMA cushion is now $25.30. The override is still the only thing in the room that's been right.
QQQ closed at $617.39 — the highest Nasdaq reading since the Iran war began. The score slipped further to 4.92. The EMA cushion grew to $16.29. The override is doing all the work, and the pure signal keeps screaming into the rally's face.
The score crossed to 4.94 this morning — officially triggering Extreme Risk-Off (100% SQQQ). EMA override at $601.82 is the only thing keeping us long. QQQ just had its best week since November. Something has to give.
Two hours after the CPI 'all clear,' the score dropped to 4.95 — one tick from Extreme Risk-Off (100% SQQQ). Consumer sentiment hit a record low at 47.6. The EMA override is the only thing keeping us long. QQQ at $611 with a $9.44 cushion above the EMA. The cliff is right there.
The March CPI report everyone was dreading dropped at 8:30 AM — headline 3.3%, but core held at 2.6%. Energy did all the damage. Markets opened higher. Score holds at 5.02 (High Risk), EMA override stays long. Rate cuts pushed to late 2027.
The score crossed the 5.05 gateway into High Risk — 50% SQQQ / 50% Cash. Meanwhile, QQQ rallied to $610.25 for its 7th straight gain. The EMA cushion doubled to $8.83. Tomorrow's CPI at 8:30 AM is the real test.
Iran says the ceasefire was violated before the ink dried. Oil is climbing back toward $100. The score dropped to 5.10 — its lowest since March 25. But QQQ is above the 70 EMA, so the override holds: 100% QQQ. Tomorrow's CPI report could change everything.
QQQ gapped $20 on the ceasefire, opened at $607.87, and immediately started fading. The score fired three rebalances in 3 hours — Constructive, Neutral, Cautious. But QQQ is above its 70 EMA, and the trend filter overrides everything. Final rec: 100% QQQ.
Trump announces two-week ceasefire with Iran at the 8 PM deadline. Oil crashes 15% to $96 — worst day since the Gulf War. Futures surge 3%. The score's 70% cash positioning survived the biggest binary event of the year. Now watch for tomorrow's rebalance.
Markets closed with QQQ recovering $6 from morning lows to $585.46. Trump says 'a whole civilization will die tonight.' Russia and China veto the UN resolution. Score holds at 5.19 — Neutral, 70% cash. Two hours to the most consequential geopolitical deadline in modern history.
US strikes Kharg Island 12 hours before Trump's 8 PM deadline. S&P snaps its 4-day streak. QQQ gaps down $6. Oil hits $117. The score dipped to 5.15 this morning — one tick from flipping defensive — then bounced to 5.19. Eight hours to deadline. 70% cash never felt so right.
S&P up four straight sessions while Trump's deadline to bomb every power plant and bridge in Iran ticks down to Tuesday 8 PM ET. Iran rejects the ceasefire. Oil barely moves. Score holds at 5.20 — Neutral, 70% cash. The calm before the storm or the market pricing in a deal that doesn't exist yet?
The missing F-15 weapons officer is out of Iran alive. Trump extends the Strait of Hormuz deadline to Tuesday 8 PM ET with profanity-laced threats to destroy every power plant and bridge. Iran hits Kuwait's water supply. Score holds Neutral at 5.22 — 70% cash into the most volatile futures open of the year.
A US-Israeli strike hit the perimeter of Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant, killing a guard. Russia is evacuating workers. Trump says 24 hours remain before 'all Hell rains down.' Score holds Neutral at 5.22 — 70% cash into the most dangerous weekend since the war began.
While markets sat dark on Good Friday, the war escalated hard. Iran downed a US fighter jet, hit Kuwait's largest refinery for the third time, and struck a UAE gas facility. 48 hours until Trump's deadline. Score holds Neutral at 5.22 with 70% cash.
BLS drops a 178K jobs bombshell on a closed market. Oil surges to $113. Trump's April 6 ultimatum to Iran is 72 hours away. Score holds Neutral at 5.22 with 70% cash — exactly where you want to be heading into a binary weekend.
Trump's primetime speech killed the peace rally — oil surged 6% back above $105, Dated Brent hit $141, and markets had a morning meltdown before recovering to flat. Score holds Neutral at 5.21 with 70% cash. Smart positioning.
Trump says Iran asked for ceasefire, SpaceX files for a $1.75T IPO, oil briefly drops below $100, and the score holds Neutral at 5.18 while QQQ closes up 1.16%. Tonight's 9 PM address changes everything.
One year after Liberation Day, the Supreme Court killed the tariffs, Iran peace talks are progressing, and ISM shows expansion. Score sits at 5.18 Neutral with 70% cash after booking a 2.9% win.
The score went long at 5.28/$558 on Sunday and booked profits at 5.18/$574 on Monday — a 2.9% swing trade win while everyone debated whether it was 'missing the rally.' Q1 is dead. The score traded it.
This morning we said watch $568. QQQ blew through it and kept going to $577. Iran says it's ready to end the war. The score dropped to 5.18 during the biggest rally in weeks. One of us is wrong.
QQQ gaps up $10 on ceasefire hopes. We called the face-ripper last night. But the rally is already fading from the open — just like Monday's dead cat. Score holds Neutral at 5.23, refusing to chase headlines. JOLTS hires rate hits lowest since 2020.
This morning we called it a dead cat bounce. By close, QQQ was down 1.1% and the Nasdaq lost 0.73%. The score tried Constructive again at 3:28 PM — second failure in four days. Powell says rates are fine. Oil says otherwise at $116 Brent.
Markets bounce with Dow +0.9% after Friday's massacre. But the score sits flat at 5.23 (Neutral — 70% Cash), QQQ still $41 below its EMA. Dead cat bounce or real recovery? The model says wait.
The Dow officially entered correction territory with a 793-point plunge. Oil closed at its highest since 2022. This morning's Constructive signal at 5.26 faded back to Neutral at 5.22. The selling won the day.
Markets are bleeding again — Nasdaq in correction, Dow nearly there, oil above $110, PCE sticky. But the score quietly crossed into Constructive (5.26) this morning. The price/macro balance is shifting.
The peace trade died today. Iran denied talks exist, oil ripped to $107, and tech got crushed. The score's Neutral stance all week just got validated — 30% QQQ, 70% Cash.
Oil cratered 5% on ceasefire hopes, then Iran said no. Markets shrugged and closed green. The score held Neutral at 5.16 — watching the same movie on repeat.
No cuts before 2027, softer March activity, and a Middle East war premium hit tech again. The score held Neutral at 5.15, which looks a lot smarter than yesterday's peace-trade fantasy.
Yesterday's $1.7T tweet rally lasted exactly one session. 3,000 paratroopers heading to the Middle East, oil back above $92, tech selling off. The score sits at 5.15 (Neutral: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash) — it didn't chase the hype, and today it looks smart for it.
A single Truth Social post added $1.7T to stocks and crashed oil 11%. Iran called it a lie. The score? Still Cautious at 5.14. When the market moves on tweets, not data, somebody's getting burned.
Jobless claims beat. Philly Fed crushed it. And the S&P still broke below its 200-day MA for the first time in 214 sessions. The score upgraded to Neutral at 5.16, but the market doesn't care about fundamentals right now.
The Fed held rates and slashed cut expectations to one. PPI came in scorching. The Dow dropped 750 points. And the score? It's been saying Cautious for days. Sometimes the boring signal is the right one.
S&P added 0.25% as the FOMC opened its two-day meeting with Brent above $100. Score locked at 5.13 (Cautious: 40% SQQQ / 60% Cash) for a second day. Tomorrow's dot plot is the real event.
S&P jumped 1% as WTI fell 5% to $95.50 and Jensen Huang promised $1T in AI chip revenue. But the score quietly dropped from 5.16 (Neutral) to 5.13 (Cautious: 40% SQQQ / 60% Cash). The model sees something the rally doesn't.
S&P opened up 0.9%, gave it all back, closed down 0.32%. GDP revised to 0.7% from 1.4%. Score dipped to 5.11 (Cautious) before recovering to 5.16 (Neutral: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash). Third straight weekly loss.
Dow drops 739 points as Iran's new supreme leader doubles down on Hormuz closure. WTI surges 10% to $95.73. Score holds at 5.19 (Neutral: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash) — and that 70% cash is looking brilliant right now.
400 million barrels hit the market and crude climbed 4% anyway. CPI came in tame at 2.4% but apparel jumped 1.3% on tariffs. Score recovers to 5.19 (Neutral: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash) from Monday's panic.
Brent crude spiked to $120 as Hormuz stayed shut. Dow dropped 800 points. Then Trump said the war is 'very complete' and everything reversed. Score dropped to 5.12 (Cautious) — and it might be the smartest one in the room.
Oil up 36% in a week. Economy shed 92K jobs. Hormuz is a parking lot. Tariffs climbing. And the only winner? An AI chip company up 16%. The score's boring 70% cash position was quietly the best trade of the week.
Nonfarm payrolls plunged -92K — the worst miss in years. Oil blasted past $90 on Strait of Hormuz chaos. Nasdaq dropped 1.6%. The score's Neutral stance at 5.22 (30% QQQ / 70% Cash) kept 70% of the portfolio dry. Marvell surged 16% on AI, proving the only safe bet is silicon.
Nasdaq ripped 1.3% on Bessent's Strait of Hormuz pledges and a tech-led rally. Meanwhile, the score quietly dropped from Neutral (5.18) to Cautious (5.13) — 40% SQQQ / 60% Cash. The model isn't buying the bounce. Should you?
US-Israel strikes kill Iran's Supreme Leader, Strait of Hormuz closes, oil surges 8%, and every index bleeds red. The score's Neutral stance at 5.18 (30% QQQ / 70% Cash) turned 70% of the portfolio into a spectator. Sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make.
Core PCE surged 0.4% and supercore hit 0.6% — the worst in a year. Trump raised global tariffs to 15%. QQQ sits $6.60 below the 70 EMA. The score holds Neutral at 5.17 (30% QQQ / 70% Cash) heading into the biggest data week of 2026 so far.
PPI came in at 0.5% vs 0.3% expected, core PPI doubled estimates at 0.8%. The Dow shed 521 points, Nasdaq dropped nearly 1%, and the score's 70% cash allocation at 5.17 (Neutral) kept portfolios dry while the market drowned in inflation fears.
Nvidia posted the best quarter in chip history and promptly dropped 5%. QQQ lost the 70 EMA it reclaimed just yesterday. The score sits at 5.15 — barely Neutral with 70% cash — and that conservative positioning just saved portfolios from a 1.2% Nasdaq haircut.
Nvidia posted $62.3B in data center revenue (+75% YoY) and the stock ripped after hours. QQQ quietly reclaimed the 70-day EMA during the session. Trump defended tariffs at the SOTU while consumer confidence barely budged. The score holds Neutral at 5.16 — still 70% cash. Smart? We'll find out tomorrow.
Markets rallied on AMD's $60B Meta deal and Home Depot earnings, but the new 10% global tariff went live at midnight. Consumer confidence is barely breathing at 91.2. The score holds Neutral at 5.17 — 70% cash while the market figures out what matters more: AI hype or trade war reality.
SCOTUS struck down the tariffs Friday. Trump slapped 15% global tariffs Saturday. Markets are down 1.5% Monday. The score went Neutral at 5.17 before any of this happened — and QQQ just broke below its 70 EMA. Nvidia earnings Wednesday could change everything.
Supreme Court strikes down Trump tariffs 6-3, sparking a relief rally. But Q4 GDP missed at 1.4% and core PCE hit 3%. The score dropped to 5.17 (Neutral: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash) overnight — and the data says it might be right.
Trump weighs military strikes on Iran, sending oil up 4%. Walmart guided below consensus. Markets slip ~0.3% while the score holds at 5.30 (Constructive: 80% QQQ / 20% Cash) — the model already positioned correctly before both events hit.
QQQ bounces to $605.79 as Meta's billion-dollar Nvidia GPU deal kills the AI fear narrative. Score dips from Momentum to Constructive (5.31: 80% QQQ / 20% Cash) while FOMC minutes reveal a Fed that can't agree on what comes next.
QQQ slides to $601—4% off February highs—while the score holds at 5.35 (Momentum). Economy says buy, market says AI is eating everything, and credit spreads are quietly widening.
CPI cooled to 2.4%—best since May 2025—but markets barely moved. Nasdaq -2.1% on the week as AI disruption fears eclipse inflation. Score holds Momentum at 5.36 while QQQ sits $16 below EMA 70.
Dow -669, Nasdaq -2%, Cisco crushed on AI margin squeeze, home sales worst drop since 2022, gold and bitcoin dump. Score holds 5.37 (Momentum) while QQQ slides to $600 — $18 below EMA 70. CPI tomorrow decides everything.
January payrolls crushed at 130K vs 55K expected, but markets faded as rate cut hopes died. Score hits new high at 5.37 (Momentum) while QQQ stays below EMA 70.
AI disruption spreads from software to financial stocks—LPL -8%, Schwab -7%. Retail sales flat. Today's delayed January jobs report at 8:30 AM is the biggest catalyst of 2026. Score at 5.35 (Momentum: 60% QQQ / 40% TQQQ).
Anthropic's Claude sparked a trillion-dollar SaaS selloff, the shutdown delayed jobs and CPI data, and China is dumping Treasuries. Score at 5.35 (Momentum: 60% QQQ / 40% TQQQ) called Friday's 2% rally.
November jobs report: 64K added, unemployment jumped to 4.6% (highest since pandemic). Oil crashed below $56, energy stocks bled. But Tesla hit all-time highs on Robotaxi hype. Score at 5.05 (Cautious), QQQ above EMA 70 keeps final rec at 100% QQQ.
ServiceNow plunged 11% on $7B Armis acquisition talks while Broadcom extended losses. Nasdaq fell 0.57% but 8 of 11 sectors rose—classic rotation. Score at 5.09 (stale), QQQ barely above EMA 70 keeps final rec at 100% QQQ, but the cushion is razor-thin.
ADP jobs plunged 32K vs +40K expected, the worst miss in months. Markets fell modestly (Nasdaq -0.4%, S&P -0.2%) as 89% odds of Fed cut and Salesforce earnings anticipation cushioned the blow. Score data stale from Nov 25 at 5.06.
Markets rose in shortened Black Friday session (S&P +0.54%, Nasdaq +0.65%), but Nasdaq still down 2% for November, ending 7-month win streak. Score at 5.06 (Cautious), but QQQ above EMA 70 keeps final rec at 100% QQQ. The override held through a volatile month.
Dow surged 664 points (+1.43%), S&P +0.91%, Nasdaq +0.67% as markets priced in 83% chance of December Fed cut. Score at 5.06 (Cautious), but QQQ above EMA 70 triggers override to 100% QQQ. The trend wins again.
Nvidia crushed Q3 earnings ($57B revenue vs $55B expected), stock jumped 5% pre-market, then everything collapsed. Dow -386, S&P -1.56%, Nasdaq -2.16%. Score at 5.14 (40% SQQQ / 60% Cash). The most stunning market reversal of the year.
Markets finally caught a break (+0.38% S&P, +0.59% Nasdaq) as Nvidia crushed earnings. But the score ticked up to 5.11 (40% SQQQ / 60% Cash) and QQQ fell below EMA 70—no override this time. Bitcoin crashed below $90K as Fed stays divided on cuts.
QQQ recovered Friday (+0.5%) after Thursday's 2.5% bloodbath, but the $80B AI capex question remains. Score at 5.04 (High Risk), final rec 100% QQQ via EMA override. The trend saved us this week—barely.
Government reopens after 43 days, but markets tanked anyway—Dow -619 (-1.3%), Nasdaq -2.5%. Score at 5.04 (High Risk = 50% SQQQ / 50% Cash), but QQQ above EMA 70 keeps final rec at 100% QQQ. The tech rotation is brutal.
Dow hit first-ever close above 48,000 (+0.68%) while Nasdaq fell 0.26%. AMD surged 6% on growth targets, but tech sector down 0.9%. Score holds at 5.0—final rec still 100% QQQ as price stays above EMA. The old economy is winning.
Score dropped to 5.0 (barely above Extreme Risk-Off), but QQQ at $621.57 above EMA 70 keeps final rec at 100% QQQ. Dow hit record high while Nasdaq fell 0.25%. SoftBank dumped $5B Nvidia stake. The rotation out of AI is accelerating.
Monday opened with a bang—Nasdaq +1.5%, S&P +1%—as Senate advances bill to end 39-day government shutdown. Score at 5.04 (High Risk) but QQQ above EMA 70 keeps final rec at 100% QQQ. The EMA override is working—for now.
Friday capped a brutal week for tech—Nasdaq down 3.2%, worst performance since April—as AI stocks collapsed on valuation fears. Score holds at 5.04 (High Risk), but QQQ above EMA 70 keeps final rec at 100% QQQ. Volatility is back with a vengeance.
After Thursday's brutal selloff (Dow -398, Nasdaq -1.9%), Friday saw 2% intraday swings before limping to a mixed close. Nasdaq -0.21%, down 3.2% for the week—worst since April. Score at 5.04 (High Risk), QQQ above EMA 70 keeps final rec at 100% QQQ. 38-day government shutdown weighs on sentiment.
Thursday's selloff was brutal: Dow -398 (-0.84%), S&P -1.12%, Nasdaq -1.9%. AI stocks led the carnage (Nvidia, MSFT, AMD, Broadcom). Layoffs hit worst level since 2003. Nasdaq on track for worst week since April. Score would say caution, but QQQ above EMA keeps final rec at 100% QQQ—barely.
Yesterday we warned about 80% of stocks falling despite new highs. Today, reality hit: Nasdaq -2%, Palantir -8% despite earnings beat, Uber -6.3% despite beat. Score ticked up to 5.08 (Short 20%), but QQQ above EMA 70 keeps final rec at 100% QQQ.
Amazon's $38B OpenAI partnership (Nvidia GPUs) sent AMZN up 4% and powered a 0.46% Nasdaq gain. Score still 5.04 (High Risk), EMA override keeps us 100% QQQ. But this AI rally is paper-thin—80% of stocks falling despite new highs.
Score still at 5.04 (High Risk), but Amazon's 9.6% surge on cloud earnings led Friday's rally. Nasdaq +0.61%, S&P +0.26%. The EMA override keeps us 100% long despite defensive signals. Strong finish to October, but November starts with uncertainty.
Hours after Powell's hawkish pivot, the score dropped from 5.08 to 5.04 (Short 50%). Trump announced a trade deal with China, but markets barely budged. The message is clear: the Fed problem is bigger than trade.
The Fed delivered the expected 0.25% cut, but Powell just told markets December is 'far from a foregone conclusion.' Nasdaq hit records, then reversed. Score at 5.08 validated—the easy money era is over.
All three major indices hit new all-time highs today (Nasdaq +1.9%, led by Nvidia). Our score sits at 5.08 (Short 20%), but QQQ above its 70 ema overrides to 100% long. Fed announces tomorrow at 2 PM ET—the moment of truth.
Markets hit fresh records (Dow 47,544, S&P 6,875) on China trade framework news. But our score dropped from 5.12 to 5.08, inching closer to danger. Fed decides tomorrow. The divergence widens.
Dow at 47,207, S&P at 6,791—all-time highs Friday. Score sits at 5.12 (Short 20%). Fed meets Wednesday with 99% rate cut odds. Earnings flood all week. Who's right: the euphoria or the caution?
September CPI came in below expectations (3.0% vs 3.1%), sparking a historic rally. Dow broke 47,000, S&P surged past 6,800. But our score at 5.12 (Short 20%) isn't celebrating—here's why.
Tesla's operating income plunged 40%, confirming yesterday's Netflix warning. But markets rallied 0.6-0.9% on Trump-Xi meeting news. Score frozen at 5.05 (Short 20%) - who's right?
Yesterday we said Netflix would be the 'real test.' It crashed 8% on a Brazil tax hit. The score (5.05 = Short 20%) hasn't moved, but the validation is here. Tesla reports tonight—the final test.
Score unchanged at 5.05 (Short 20%), but Dow rallies to record high on Coke, 3M, GM earnings beats. The divergence deepens. Netflix tonight, Tesla tomorrow—who's right?
Our economic score dropped to 5.05 (Short 20%, right at the edge), but markets rallied over 1% on Apple's all-time high. Tesla earnings Wednesday. Is Wall Street ignoring the signals?
Friday's +0.5% bounce felt good, but our score staying at 5.09 (Short 20%) tells a different story. Powell's valuation warnings, a 71% shutdown probability, and structural weakness suggest caution heading into Monday.
Futures opened down 0.77% on trade war fears. Markets closed UP 0.5% on Trump's tariff walkback and strong bank earnings. Our score at 5.09 (Short 20%) says don't mistake relief for an all-clear.
TSMC crushes earnings (+39% profit), jobless claims fall, but futures are down 0.77%. Our score at 5.09 (Short 20%) called it: when markets ignore good news, stay defensive.
Philly Fed crashes to -12.8, regional banks plunge on fraud disclosure. The market's been ignoring warning signs—today reality hit hard.