📊 Score Holds Neutral at 5.16 — But QQQ Just Crossed Back Above the 70 EMA
The Edge Of Markets score closed at 5.16 (Neutral: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash), bouncing between 5.16 and 5.17 all day like it couldn't decide between "meh" and "slightly less meh." It's been trapped in this 5.16-5.21 range since last Thursday — six days of the model refusing to commit.
But here's what changed today: QQQ closed at $616.68, reclaiming the 70-day EMA ($615.05) for the first time since last week's tariff selloff pushed it below. That's a meaningful technical development. The trend filter just flipped back to "uptrend," which means if the score were to dip into defensive territory (below 5.15), the EMA override would kick in and keep us long.
Final Recommendation: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash
The model is still in wait-and-see mode. But QQQ crossing back above the EMA is the first genuinely positive technical signal we've had all week.
🚀 Nvidia Just Dropped a Monster Quarter
The moment everyone's been waiting for. Nvidia reported Q4 FY2026 earnings after the bell, and it was another absolute clinic:
- Data Center Revenue: $62.3 billion — up 75% year-over-year
- Networking Revenue: $10.98 billion — the Blackwell ramp is real
- Stock reaction: Jumped in after-hours trading, extending its 5% YTD gain
Hyperscalers accounted for just over 50% of data center revenue, which means the other half came from enterprise, sovereign AI, and startups. The demand funnel isn't narrowing — it's broadening. That's the bull case in one statistic.
During the regular session, NVDA was already up 2.2% on anticipation. Software stocks ran too — Anthropic's new Claude Cowork integrations gave the AI infrastructure trade a fresh catalyst. The whole AI food chain rallied: chips, cloud, software, all of it. And now the after-hours numbers confirm the demand is backing it up.
📈 Back-to-Back Gains: The Indexes Keep Climbing
Two straight days of green after Monday's tariff-driven bloodbath:
- Nasdaq: +1.1% — tech led the charge, especially semis and software
- S&P 500: +0.8% to 6,890
- Dow: +0.4%, or roughly 210 points to 49,174
The market has now recovered more than half of Monday's losses in just two sessions. That's either resilience or denial — and Nvidia's after-hours beat might push it toward the former interpretation. If QQQ gaps up tomorrow on the NVDA results, this 70 EMA reclaim could turn into a genuine trend reversal signal.
🏛️ State of the Union: "The Deals Are All Done"
Trump delivered the State of the Union last night, and if you were hoping for a tariff rollback, well... he did the exact opposite. Key takeaways:
- Doubled down on tariffs, saying "the deals are all done" with no changes coming
- Took a shot at the Supreme Court for ruling many of his tariffs were illegal
- Announced a new 10% baseline tariff under Section 122, which he then hiked to 15% the next morning
- Claimed tariffs are "paid for by foreign countries" — economists unanimously disagree
The market's reaction? A collective shrug. Investors have clearly decided that tariff rhetoric is noise until it shows up in actual earnings guidance or economic data. The 10% global tariff went live yesterday at midnight, and the market has rallied both days since. Either the tariffs don't matter as much as feared, or the market is doing its favorite thing: ignoring problems until they're unavoidable.
Consumer confidence offered a clue: the Conference Board index ticked up to 91.2 from 89.0, beating the 87.4 estimate. But dig deeper — the Present Situation index actually fell 1.8 points to 120.0. People feel slightly better about the future (Expectations up 4.8 points) but worse about right now. That's a weird mix. Inflation expectations cooling from 4.0% to 3.4% probably helped the forward-looking sentiment.
🎯 My Take: Three Stories, One Market
Today was a three-headed beast. You've got Nvidia proving AI demand is real and accelerating. You've got Trump going full tariff hawk at the State of the Union. And you've got QQQ quietly reclaiming a key technical level that nobody's talking about.
The score at 5.16 is saying "the economic fundamentals are neither great nor terrible." And honestly? That's a fair read. The economy isn't falling apart — consumer confidence beat, the labor market differential is still positive, and corporate earnings (HD yesterday, NVDA today) are coming in strong. But the tariff overhang is real, the Present Situation index is weakening, and we're one bad data point away from the score tipping into a regime where the EMA override becomes the difference between long and defensive.
The EMA reclaim is the subplot everyone should be watching. If QQQ holds above $615 tomorrow on the Nvidia gap-up, that's a confirmed trend reversal. If it fails and drops back below, then today was just a head-fake in a broader downtrend. The score says stay mostly cash. The tape says momentum is building. Tomorrow's open will tell us which one was right.
💡 Bottom Line: Nvidia Delivered. Now What?
The score is Neutral at 5.16, holding 30% QQQ / 70% Cash. QQQ reclaimed the 70 EMA today. Nvidia crushed earnings after the bell. Trump hiked tariffs to 15% and told the Supreme Court to deal with it.
- Watch QQQ $615: That's the 70 EMA. Hold it = uptrend confirmed. Lose it = still range-bound
- Watch Nvidia's opening print: If it gaps above $140 and holds, the AI trade has fresh legs
- Watch the score: One more tick up to 5.25 and we move to Constructive (80% QQQ / 20% Cash). One tick down to 5.14 and the EMA override kicks in
The model is patient. After a week like this — SCOTUS rulings, tariff bombs, Nvidia earnings — patience might be the most valuable position of all. But tomorrow morning, we'll know if patience paid off or if we missed the train.