🗓️ One Year Later: Liberation Day Is Dead. Long Live the Refund.
A year ago tomorrow, Donald Trump walked into the Rose Garden and declared April 2nd "Liberation Day" — slapping sweeping reciprocal tariffs on dozens of nations under emergency powers. The market cratered. Supply chains scrambled. Inflation spiked. And for about ten months, we all just... dealt with it.
Then in February 2026, the Supreme Court said nope. In Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, the Court ruled that using IEEPA emergency powers to enact the tariffs was flat-out illegal. The tariffs generated roughly $166 billion in IEEPA collections and $264 billion in total customs duties through 2025. A messy $170 billion refund process is now underway.
The economic wreckage? Manufacturing employment dropped 89,000 jobs between April 2025 and February 2026. Inflation went up. The trade deficit did actually shrink — for 10 straight months — which was the whole point. But the cost was brutal.
One year later, markets are treating it like a bad dream that's finally over. And honestly? They might be right. The tariff overhang is gone. The refund checks are coming. That's a tailwind nobody had on their bingo card six months ago.
📊 Score Check: Still Neutral at 5.18 — And That's Fine
The score hasn't budged since yesterday at 1:19 PM ET when it dropped to 5.18 (Neutral — 30% QQQ / 70% Cash). No new readings today yet.
Quick recap of the trade that just closed: the score entered Constructive at 5.28 on Sunday at 3:28 PM with QQQ at $558.27. It held through 22 hours of noise (dips to 5.22-5.23 — all under the 0.07 threshold). Then yesterday at 1:19 PM, it crossed into Neutral at 5.18 with QQQ at $574.45. That's +$16.18/share, +2.9%.
Since that exit, QQQ has rallied another $9.26 to $583.71 as of 10:00 AM today. The 30% QQQ position captured about $2.78/share of that continuation. Not maximum, but not zero either. The model took its swing trade profits and is now riding the momentum lightly while keeping 70% in cash.
QQQ is at $583.71 vs the 70-day EMA at $603.82 — still $20 below. No EMA override. The trend filter says we're still in a downtrend despite today's green tape. Final recommendation: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash.
🏭 ISM Manufacturing: Three Months of Expansion, But the Cracks Are Showing
The March ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 52.7, up from 52.4 in February. That's three consecutive months of expansion and the 17th straight month of overall economic expansion. On the surface, solid.
But dig into the internals and the picture gets murkier. New Orders fell to 53.5 from 55.8 — still expanding, but losing momentum fast. The ratio of positive to negative demand comments dropped from 2:1 in February to 1:1 in March. And the kicker: New Export Orders slipped back into contraction at 49.9, down from 50.3. The tariff hangover is still hitting international demand even after the Supreme Court ruling.
The ISM implies about 1.8% annualized GDP growth. That's not a recession, but it's not exactly a boom either. The economy is trudging forward while markets try to price in a world where tariffs are dead and war is ending. There's a gap between hope and reality here — the question is which one closes it.
🎯 My Take: Three Tailwinds, One Problem
Q2 is opening with three genuine tailwinds stacked on top of each other:
- Tariffs are dead. The Supreme Court killed them. $170 billion in refunds is stimulus nobody expected. Businesses that were eating tariff costs for months are about to get checks.
- Iran is coming to the table. Pakistan is facilitating indirect talks, 15 US proposals are being deliberated, and Trump says the war could wind down in 2-3 weeks. Asia rallied 3-5% overnight on the optimism. Brent crude pulling back from its March highs.
- Manufacturing is expanding. ISM at 52.7 means the factory floor isn't collapsing — it's growing, just slowly. That's the baseline you want when everything else is improving.
The problem? Price is running ahead of all of it. QQQ has ripped from $558 to $583 in two days — that's a 4.5% move before any of these stories have actually resolved. Iran hasn't signed anything. The refund checks haven't hit accounts. Export orders are contracting. The market is pricing in the best-case scenario while the real-world timeline is still measured in weeks and months.
I think the rally has legs — these aren't fake catalysts, they're structural shifts. But I also think the next 48 hours matter more than people realize. Trump's Iran deadline is April 6th. If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't reopen, oil rips back above $120 and this whole "war is over" trade unwinds fast. The score's 70% cash position gives us room to add if the resolution materializes and room to dodge if it doesn't. That's the right posture for a market trading on hope.
⚡ Bottom Line: Don't Mistake Hope for Resolution
Markets are gapping up on a trifecta of good vibes — tariff death, peace talks, and decent manufacturing data. All real. All meaningful. But QQQ is still $20 below its 70-day EMA, the score is at 5.18 Neutral with 70% cash, and the biggest catalyst (Iran actually signing something) hasn't happened yet.
The score just booked a 2.9% win trading the first wave of this rally. It's now positioned to participate in the continuation at 30% while keeping plenty of dry powder for whatever Q2 throws at us next. Jobs report Friday. Iran deadline Sunday. Earnings in two weeks.
Enjoy the green. Just don't bet the house on it until the ink is dry.