📊 Score Climbs Back to Neutral — But Don't Call It Optimism
Two days ago, the score was sitting at 5.08 — deep in Cautious territory — as oil hit $120 and the world briefly contemplated the end of global trade as we know it. Today it's back to 5.19 (Neutral: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash).
Here's the intraday journey: the score opened at 5.19 this morning, dipped to 5.15 around 11:48 AM as oil prices spiked again, then pushed to a session high of 5.24 at 2:46 PM before fading back to 5.19 by close. It tried to break higher. It couldn't sustain it.
QQQ closed at $607.69, still $4.35 below the 70-day EMA of $612.04. Below the EMA means no override — we follow the score directly.
Final Recommendation: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash
The model isn't panicking anymore, but it's definitely not partying either. Think of it as cautiously watching from the doorway.
🛢️ 400 Million Barrels and Oil Still Won
The International Energy Agency announced the largest emergency oil reserve release in history today — 400 million barrels, more than double the 182.7 million barrels released during the 2022 Ukraine invasion response. All 32 IEA member countries voted unanimously. This was the nuclear option for oil markets.
And the result? WTI crude climbed 4% to $87.25. Brent gained 4.8% to $91.98.
Read that again. The biggest coordinated supply intervention in the history of the IEA, and oil went up. That tells you everything about the severity of the Strait of Hormuz disruption. When 25% of global seaborne oil trade is running at less than 10% of normal capacity, 400 million barrels is a band-aid on a broken leg.
The market looked at the biggest bullet in the IEA's arsenal and said: "Cool. Got anything else?" That's terrifying.
📉 CPI Was Fine. Nobody Cares. Here's Why.
February CPI came in at 2.4% annually, exactly as expected. Core CPI: 2.5%, also in line. On any other day, this would be the lead story — inflation holding steady, not getting worse, the Fed can breathe.
But here's the thing: this is February data. The Iran war started February 28. Gas prices have surged 19% in two weeks. The real inflationary impact of $90+ oil and a crippled Strait of Hormuz hasn't shown up in the numbers yet. This CPI report is like checking your bank account before the credit card bill posts.
The details that do matter:
- Apparel jumped 1.3% — the biggest monthly increase since September 2018. That's tariffs showing up in your shopping cart. The effective tariff rate is now 10.5%, the highest since 1943.
- Shelter cooled to 0.2%, with rent posting just 0.1% — the smallest monthly gain since January 2021. This is genuinely good news.
- Food accelerated to 0.4% (3.1% annual). Groceries are getting more expensive while the consumer is already stretched.
The Fed is almost certainly holding at the March 17-18 meeting (markets pricing 99% probability). One cut is priced for 2026. Just one. The days of aggressive easing expectations are dead.
💹 Markets Shrugged — And That Might Be the Scariest Part
Today's closing numbers:
- Dow Jones: -289 points (-0.61%) to 47,417
- S&P 500: -0.08% to 6,775.80
- Nasdaq: +0.08% to 22,716
Basically flat. On a day when the IEA fired its biggest weapon, oil surged despite it, CPI showed tariff inflation creeping in, and the Strait of Hormuz remained functionally closed. The market just... sat there.
I've seen this movie before. Markets go numb after sustained volatility. Traders get desensitized to headlines. And then something snaps — either a genuine resolution that sparks a real rally, or a deterioration that catches everyone flat-footed. Right now we're in the eye of the hurricane, and the calm is deceptive.
Gas is at $3.50 nationally, up 57 cents in two weeks. That's a consumer tax that hasn't fully hit spending data yet. When it does, the market won't be this calm.
🎯 My Take: The IEA Just Showed Its Hand and the Market Called the Bluff
Here's what today really revealed: there is no policy tool that can fix a 25% oil supply disruption. The IEA released 400 million barrels — more than anyone thought possible — and it didn't even keep crude flat. If the Strait of Hormuz doesn't reopen soon, we're headed for sustained $90-100+ oil, and all the strategic reserves in the world are a finite resource against an ongoing crisis.
The score's recovery from 5.08 to 5.19 is interesting. The model saw Monday's panic, held its ground, and has slowly walked back to Neutral as the dust settled. It's not saying "all clear" — 70% cash is still a heavily defensive stance. But it's no longer saying "short everything." The difference between 5.08 and 5.19 is the difference between "the house is on fire" and "the fire department is here but the house is still smoking."
Sunday's blog called the market's rally on Trump's "war over" comments premature. Two days later: the war is not over, oil is still elevated, and the market has given back most of Sunday's gains. The score's skepticism at 5.12 was warranted.
What worries me most isn't today. It's next month's CPI. February was pre-war, pre-oil spike, pre-gas surge. March's numbers are going to have $90+ oil, 19% gas price increases, and tariff-inflated apparel baked in. If that print comes in hot, the one rate cut everyone is clinging to evaporates. And then what?
⚠️ Bottom Line: The Calm Before the Inflation Storm
Score: 5.19 — Neutral (30% QQQ / 70% Cash). QQQ below EMA 70. No override. Majority cash.
Today's CPI was the last "clean" inflation report we're going to see for a while. The war, oil, gas, and tariffs are all inflationary forces that haven't hit the data yet. The IEA played its biggest card today and the market shrugged. That's not reassuring — that's a market that's out of ammunition before the real battle starts.
Key levels to watch:
- QQQ $612.04 (70 EMA) — still $4.35 below, need to reclaim for trend flip
- Oil $90-100 — if Brent holds above $90 despite IEA release, supply crisis is real
- March 17-18 FOMC — Fed decision + updated dot plot. Any hawkish shift kills the rate cut dream
- Gas prices — $3.50 and climbing. Consumer spending data will tell the real story
The model says Neutral, and for once I think that's exactly right. Not bearish enough to short, not brave enough to go all-in. Sit in cash, watch the Strait of Hormuz, and wait for the March inflation data. That's when the real story begins.