📈 Since This Morning, Buyers Kept Pushing
This morning's post said QQQ was standing next to the cash register. By late afternoon, it was still standing there. The important change is that the tape got another AI shove and still did not trigger the persisted +6% stretch trim in the database.
QQQ opened around $738.98, traded as high as $740.07 in the intraday feed, and was still near $738.85 at 3:30 PM ET. SPY told the same story: quiet, green, and record-adjacent rather than euphoric panic buying.
The morning risk was a trim. The afternoon answer was: close, but not yet. That is annoying if you wanted a dramatic signal. It is useful if you care about the actual rule.
📊 Full QQQ Still Wins the Benchmark Fight
The latest score is 4.69 from 2:49 PM ET, matched to QQQ around $737.49 at 3:00 PM. Raw signal: Extreme Risk-Off, which by itself still means 100% SQQQ. Judged alone, the raw score is still getting beaten by QQQ. No sugarcoating that.
- Live allocation: 100% QQQ via the EMA70 override
- QQQ vs EMA70: $738.90 versus $657.46
- EMA25 stretch: neutral at +5.68%, not above_6
- Next trim: roughly $741.13, where the floor cuts to 50% QQQ / 50% Cash
- Ref score: 4.94 from April 11 at 8:49 AM ET; the next score gateway is still far away at 5.35
The raw engine says short. The traded system says stay with the trend until price actually trips the stretch rule.
💻 Dell Gave the Bulls Their Excuse
AP had stocks higher in afternoon trading, with the S&P 500 up about 0.2%, the Dow up roughly 325 points, and the Nasdaq also green around 3:10 PM ET. The headline was not subtle: records again, helped by technology.
The loudest spark was Dell. AP said Dell surged more than 30% after earnings beat expectations and management raised its outlook on AI computing demand. Microsoft and Broadcom were green too. That matters because this tape does not need every stock to work. It needs the big AI complex to keep carrying enough weight that index buyers stay comfortable.
Reuters framed the morning backdrop as steady futures, improving risk appetite, easing geopolitical fear around Iran/Hormuz headlines, and inflation data that avoided a major upside surprise. By the afternoon, that was basically the whole playbook: not perfect macro, just enough calm for AI to do the lifting.
🎯 My Take: Do Not Front-Run the Trim
I get the temptation to say, "This is stretched, take the cash now." QQQ is high, AI is hot, and the raw score has been screaming risk-off for weeks. But the traded system is not built to guess at stretch. It has a line, and the line has not fired.
That is the right discipline. The raw score alone has been too early, and too early for this long is not cute. But the overlay has kept the book from shorting a market that keeps grinding higher. That is the part currently earning its keep.
Afternoon verdict: full QQQ until the stretch trigger actually hits. If buyers want to push above the trim line, the system can take half off. Until then, front-running the rule is just discretionary anxiety wearing a quant costume.