📊 Score Holds at 5.19 — 70% Cash Was the Right Call
While the Dow shed 739 points and every major index posted its lowest close of 2026, the Edge Of Markets score sat at 5.19 (Neutral: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash) and barely flinched.
Today's intraday path was remarkably tight: 5.19 at open, a brief bounce to 5.21 around 3:15 PM as oil came off its highs, then right back to 5.19 by close. Compare that to Monday when it was swinging between 5.08 and 5.18, or Tuesday when it spiked to 5.24 before fading. The model has made its decision: this is a 70% cash environment, and it's not budging.
QQQ closed at $597.26, now a full $13.84 below the 70-day EMA of $611.10. That gap widened significantly from yesterday's $4.35. Below the EMA means no override — we follow the score directly.
Final Recommendation: 30% QQQ / 70% Cash
When the market drops 1.5% and your allocation is 70% cash, that's not luck — that's the model doing exactly what it's designed to do.
🛢️ Brent Crude Settles Above $100. The IEA's Biggest Weapon Didn't Even Last a Day.
Yesterday I wrote: "The market looked at the biggest bullet in the IEA's arsenal and said: 'Cool. Got anything else?' That's terrifying."
Today that fear was confirmed. Brent crude settled above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022. WTI surged 9.72% to $95.73. This is happening 24 hours after the IEA announced the largest emergency oil reserve release in history — 400 million barrels.
Let me put it plainly: the developed world fired every bullet it had. All 32 IEA member countries unanimously agreed to flood the market with oil. The U.S. committed 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. And crude blew right past $100 anyway.
The reason is simple and terrifying: you can't out-reserve a closed Strait of Hormuz. 20% of global oil flows through that waterway. When it's running at less than 10% capacity, no amount of strategic releases can fill the hole. It's like trying to bail out a sinking ship with a coffee mug.
🔥 Iran's New Supreme Leader: "Not a Litre of Oil" Gets Through
Remember Sunday when Trump said the war was "very complete, pretty much" and markets staged that massive reversal? Three days later, Iran's new supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei — appointed March 9 after the original Khamenei was killed in the February 28 strikes — just told the world the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed as a "tool to pressure the enemy."
Three more ships were struck in the Persian Gulf overnight. Iran's military spokesperson went on record saying to "get ready for $200 oil" because "the oil price depends on regional security, which you have destabilized." Iran's Foreign Minister rejected ceasefire calls on NBC's Meet the Press.
So much for "war over." The new Iranian leadership has clearly decided that controlling oil flows is their strongest card, and they're playing it aggressively. Every day the Strait stays closed, the pressure on global markets intensifies. And unlike Sunday's Trump-driven rally, there's no tweet that can reopen a shipping lane guarded by missiles.
Gas prices nationally are up 58 cents a gallon since the war began two weeks ago. That number is going higher.
📉 2026 Lows Across the Board — The Numbers Are Getting Ugly
Today's damage report:
- Dow Jones: -739 points (-1.56%) to 46,677 — below 47,000 for the first time this year
- S&P 500: -1.52% to 6,672
- Nasdaq: -1.78% to 22,311 — third consecutive down day
- QQQ: $597.26 — dropped over $10 in a single session
All three major indexes posted their lowest closes of 2026. This isn't a dip-buyers' paradise anymore — this is a market that's breaking through support levels and looking for a floor.
Yesterday I noted the market "just sat there" on a flat day with oil surging. Today it stopped sitting. The numbness wore off, and with Brent crossing $100, the reality of an extended energy crisis finally hit home. When the biggest coordinated intervention in IEA history can't hold crude below triple digits, traders stop buying dips and start selling rallies.
🎯 My Take: The Score's Steadiness Is the Story Nobody's Telling
Here's what I want to highlight: the score hasn't panicked. It went to 5.08 on Monday when oil hit $120 and the world felt like it was ending. It recovered to 5.19 on Tuesday when the IEA stepped in. And today, with Brent crossing $100 and markets at 2026 lows, it held at 5.19.
That stability tells you something. The model is saying: "Yes, this is bad. No, it's not getting worse at the rate it was Monday. But I'm keeping 70% in cash because this is far from over." That's a mature read. The economic fundamentals haven't deteriorated further — they just haven't improved either.
And look at where QQQ is now: $597.26, a full $13.84 below the 70-day EMA. That gap tripled from yesterday. The trend is decisively down. Anyone buying this dip is fighting both the score and the EMA. You can do that — but you're arguing with two independent systems that are both saying the same thing: stay defensive.
Sunday's Trump rally looked like genius for about 48 hours. The score was at 5.12 (Cautious) and didn't chase it. Today vindicated that skepticism. The model doesn't trade on tweets. It trades on data. And right now, the data says $100 oil with a closed Strait of Hormuz isn't a buy signal no matter how many barrels the IEA promises to release.
⚠️ Bottom Line: $100 Oil Is the New Reality Until Hormuz Reopens
Score: 5.19 — Neutral (30% QQQ / 70% Cash). QQQ deep below EMA 70. No override. Majority cash.
The IEA played its ace. Trump talked tough. Neither moved the needle. $100 Brent is now the baseline, not the outlier. And the FOMC meeting is five days away (March 17-18). The Fed was already stuck — holding rates with inflation coming in at 2.4% — and now they have to navigate an energy shock that's going to blow up March's CPI print. They can't cut into rising oil prices, and they can't hike into a slowing economy. Rock, meet hard place.
Key levels to watch:
- QQQ $611.10 (70 EMA) — now $13.84 below. The gap is widening fast.
- Brent $100 — settled above this for the first time since Aug 2022. If it holds, sustained stagflation fears are next.
- Dow 46,000 — next major psychological support after breaking 47,000 today
- March 17-18 FOMC — Powell's tightrope walk just got a lot thinner
- Strait of Hormuz — the only thing that truly fixes this. Everything else is a band-aid.
70% cash. That's the model's call, and after a day like today, I wouldn't argue with it. The world threw everything it had at the oil market and lost. Until the Strait reopens, cash isn't just king — it's the only sane play.